The airline bombing plot and unexpected side effects
I awoke like many today to the news that Police in the United Kingdom had arrested a series of suspects in relation to an alleged conspiracy smuggle explosive devices onto airliners leaving the UK, at least some of them bound for the USA, with the aim of destroying the aircraft in flight with massive loss of life. It seems likely at this stage that the plot is linked to Al-Qaeda, perhaps involving some of the same organisers as the July 7 London bombings in 2005.
There have already been various side effects from this news. Some of them might easily be predicted based on the regrettable previous instances of major terrorism attacks or alerts in recent memory. The stock market dipped. (It was a bad day to hold airline stock). Airport security clamped down, with resulting long waits by passengers and increasingly stringent rules for what passengers may carry. Air travel bookings will dip. Airlines with a tenuous grip on financial viability may tumble into receivership.
There may, however, be another unexpected side effect. Al Qaeda supports Hezbollah in their struggle with Israel. They have said so publicly. But Al Qaeda, or whomever instigated the conspiracy that was disrupted today, has done Hezbollah no favours. Had their conspiracy succeeded in its shocking aims, they would have hindered Hezbollah even more. Why? Because Hezbollah’s field of battle – moreso than the villages and towns of Lebanon and northern Israel – is in the field of world opinion. They seek to blunt, to slow, to stop, and ultimately to defeat Israel with a thousand publicity victories, until Israel has been reduced to such a pariah that any outrage committed against Israel will pass with equanimity in the rest of the world, while any attempt by Israel to confront or defeat its foes would find so little support in the world, even in Israel itself, that Israel will cease to defend itself.
In order to achieve their publicity victories, Hezbollah uses several tools. First, any battle not clearly won by the Israeli military – that is, with no or few Israeli casualties and incontrovertible evidence of defeated Hezbollah fighters or captured or destroyed equipment – is a victory for Hezbollah, who simply by virtue of appearing to be able to fight the Israelis on even terms have eclipsed the professional military forces of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria, each of whom have fought the Israelis in the past and lost. Hezbollah need only seem not to lose in order to win, here. Second, any attack where Israeli casualties are inflicted – whether upon the Israeli military or Israeli civilians – is a victory for Hezbollah to their supporters, and to those who may not support Hezbollah but see them as no worse than the Israelis, seems only fair. Third, any apparent Lebanese civilian deaths are a victory for Hezbollah, increasing sympathy for the Lebanese and by association Hezbollah and decreasing sympathy for Israel. This is the battle Hezbollah is fighting, and if Israel cannot score any significant media coups, Hezbollah may well win it. Israel can survive being a pariah in the middle east – it has been one for 58 years. Israel cannot survive being a pariah throughout the world or at home.
But the airline terror conspiracy disrupted today will not help Hezbollah. The public already associates terrorism, especially terrorism aimed at airliners, with Islamic terror groups, particularly Al-Qaeda. Many people will be frightened or inconvenienced by today’s events. Some people will consider how Al-Qaeda’s goals and methods are similar to those of Hezbollah, and others will remember Al-Qaeda’s public statements of support for Hezbollah. Some might wonder whether Hezbollah really is no worse than the Israeli Defence Force, or whether the Israelis are a lot like us, only they’ve been fighting terrorism longer. This may reduce sympathy for Hezbollah, at least in the West, shifting the balance somewhat.
There have already been various side effects from this news. Some of them might easily be predicted based on the regrettable previous instances of major terrorism attacks or alerts in recent memory. The stock market dipped. (It was a bad day to hold airline stock). Airport security clamped down, with resulting long waits by passengers and increasingly stringent rules for what passengers may carry. Air travel bookings will dip. Airlines with a tenuous grip on financial viability may tumble into receivership.
There may, however, be another unexpected side effect. Al Qaeda supports Hezbollah in their struggle with Israel. They have said so publicly. But Al Qaeda, or whomever instigated the conspiracy that was disrupted today, has done Hezbollah no favours. Had their conspiracy succeeded in its shocking aims, they would have hindered Hezbollah even more. Why? Because Hezbollah’s field of battle – moreso than the villages and towns of Lebanon and northern Israel – is in the field of world opinion. They seek to blunt, to slow, to stop, and ultimately to defeat Israel with a thousand publicity victories, until Israel has been reduced to such a pariah that any outrage committed against Israel will pass with equanimity in the rest of the world, while any attempt by Israel to confront or defeat its foes would find so little support in the world, even in Israel itself, that Israel will cease to defend itself.
In order to achieve their publicity victories, Hezbollah uses several tools. First, any battle not clearly won by the Israeli military – that is, with no or few Israeli casualties and incontrovertible evidence of defeated Hezbollah fighters or captured or destroyed equipment – is a victory for Hezbollah, who simply by virtue of appearing to be able to fight the Israelis on even terms have eclipsed the professional military forces of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria, each of whom have fought the Israelis in the past and lost. Hezbollah need only seem not to lose in order to win, here. Second, any attack where Israeli casualties are inflicted – whether upon the Israeli military or Israeli civilians – is a victory for Hezbollah to their supporters, and to those who may not support Hezbollah but see them as no worse than the Israelis, seems only fair. Third, any apparent Lebanese civilian deaths are a victory for Hezbollah, increasing sympathy for the Lebanese and by association Hezbollah and decreasing sympathy for Israel. This is the battle Hezbollah is fighting, and if Israel cannot score any significant media coups, Hezbollah may well win it. Israel can survive being a pariah in the middle east – it has been one for 58 years. Israel cannot survive being a pariah throughout the world or at home.
But the airline terror conspiracy disrupted today will not help Hezbollah. The public already associates terrorism, especially terrorism aimed at airliners, with Islamic terror groups, particularly Al-Qaeda. Many people will be frightened or inconvenienced by today’s events. Some people will consider how Al-Qaeda’s goals and methods are similar to those of Hezbollah, and others will remember Al-Qaeda’s public statements of support for Hezbollah. Some might wonder whether Hezbollah really is no worse than the Israeli Defence Force, or whether the Israelis are a lot like us, only they’ve been fighting terrorism longer. This may reduce sympathy for Hezbollah, at least in the West, shifting the balance somewhat.
posted by Hiraethin at 4:54 pm
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